Narva vs Kuressaare

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. The line landed in 6/6 Narva and 5/6 Kuressaare completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 1/2. Narva conceded in every recent match, including 2-2 draws with Flora and Parnu JK Vaprus; the September meeting finished 3-1. The low match-total is better supported than choosing a winner. Model total expected goals 3.50 is secondary support. Main risk: Kuressaare failed to score in both recent away matches, including a 0-0 at Harju JK Laagri; two of the last five H2Hs were goalless and the away sample is small. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.