Bataan Risers vs San Juan Knights

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. San Juan Knights won all five completed games since September and nine of their last ten, including the latest playoff meeting with Bataan 94-84. Current away wins include 74-62 at Mindoro and 145-72 at Paranaque; they won all three listed H2Hs, including 102-95 at Bataan in June. Bataan are 3/5 since September and lost two of their last three. Main risk: blowouts over weaker opponents inflate San Juan scoring, their Ilagan win was only by four points, and Bataan return home after an eight-day gap. The model 85% is discounted to account for opponent strength, venue and missing current odds.