Dougaz A. vs Dzumhur D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Dougaz took a set in eight of ten recent hard-court matches and recently beat Sonego (87) 2-1 before losing 1-2 to Cina (147); an earlier win over Jacquet (76) adds opponent-quality support. Dzumhur has only two wins and three set successes in five comparable matches, including straight-set losses to Echargui and Erhard. Main risk: Dzumhur ranks 103 versus 430, Dougaz was swept by Komagata (1667), and most of Dougaz's other wins were at a lower level. The low-quality 56% match model and small opposing sample justify a conservative set estimate.