Gea A. vs Mensik J.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Gea took a set in all seven comparable recent hard-court BO3 matches and beat Shelton (rank 4) 2-0, Humbert (32) 2-1 and Faria (60) 2-1. His sole loss was 1-2 to Hurkacz, providing stronger evidence than a raw streak against weak opposition. Main risk: Mensik ranks 15 versus 56, recently beat Cerundolo and Bublik, and the low-quality model gives Gea only 42% to win the match. A set is the broader supported market; no H2H is supplied.