Iannaccone F. vs Jianu F. C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Iannaccone has taken a set in eight of ten recent clay matches and just beat Milev 2-1 and Consolo 2-0. Jianu has lost six of seven, five in straight sets, including defeats to Turcanu (691) and Ivanov (494), so the opposition adjustment still supports one set despite Iannaccone's weaker rank. The low-quality model leans 62% to Iannaccone for the match. Main risk: Iannaccone's wins were mainly over lower-level opponents and he was swept by Oradini and Mikrut; no H2H is supplied.