Millwall vs Swansea

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. The line landed in 6/8 Millwall and 6/7 Swansea completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/4 and 3/3. Swansea scored at least twice in five of seven recent matches, including wins over Norwich, Lincoln and Burnley; Millwall allowed four goals against West Ham and Middlesbrough combined. Model total expected goals 2.88 is secondary support. Main risk: Millwall just won 1-0 at Preston and Swansea had a 0-0 with Wrexham; several older H2Hs were 1-0, reducing confidence from the raw hit rate. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.