Parnu JK Vaprus vs Kalju

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 68%. The line landed in 6/8 Parnu JK Vaprus and 4/6 Kalju completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/3 and 2/2. Parnu most recently drew 2-2 with Narva, and the three 2026 H2Hs finished 3-1, 3-1 and 1-2. Kalju scored in its two recent away games against Tammeka and Flora. Model total expected goals 3.70 is secondary support. Main risk: Kalju just lost 0-1 to Harju and Parnu beat Nomme 1-0; only five combined recent venue observations, so the estimate is below the displayed 73% over-2.5 model. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.