Guerrieri A. vs Shelbayh A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Shelbayh took a set in 8/10 recent completed hard matches, including 2-1 over Dzumhur, 2-0 over Jorda Sanchis and 1-2 against Glinka this week. Guerrieri has sets in 7/9 but lost 0-2 to Holmgren most recently and to Kwon in August. Main risk: Guerrieri ranks 165 versus 291 and beat Maestrelli and Schwaerzler; Shelbayh was swept by Dietrich and Mmoh and has played a busy recent schedule. There is no H2H and the low-quality model is 50-50.