Ajdukovic D. vs Martin A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Ajdukovic took a set in all ten recent completed clay matches, including 2-0 over Marques and Jianu and 1-2 against Gaubas, Clarke and Sakellaridis. Martin has sets in 6/9 and was swept by Moro Canas, Pieri and Gulin. Main risk: Ajdukovic won only five of ten while Martin won six of nine and just swept Domingues; several Martin wins were against weak opposition. Rankings 353 versus 387 and model 52% offer only slight match-win support; Ajdukovic's 2021 H2H win is secondary.