Tsitsipas S. vs Fritz T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Tsitsipas took a set in all six comparable completed hard best-of-three matches, beating Darderi and Coppejans 2-0 most recently and losing only 1-2 to Vacherot. He swept Fritz in their January hard H2H. Main risk: Fritz also has sets in all six comparable matches, ranks 12 versus 43 and swept Arnaldi most recently; he won their 2024 best-of-five meeting. Model 62% favors Fritz. Format differences and the small samples keep this a cautious one-set selection.