Landaluce M. vs Simakin I.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Simakin took a set in all ten recent completed hard matches and won nine, including 2-1 over Pavlovic and Pacheco Mendez and a 1-2 loss to Ugo Carabelli on October 8. Landaluce has sets in 5/8 and was swept by Struff, Tirante and Zheng. Main risk: Landaluce ranks 73 versus 154 and beat Arnaldi and Draper; many Simakin wins were against weaker opposition. The low-quality model gives Simakin 71% to win, and no H2H is supplied; the set estimate is discounted for that opposition gap.