Paul T. vs Vacherot V.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Paul took a set in 5/6 comparable completed hard best-of-three matches, including 2-0 over Vallejo most recently, wins over Zverev and Hurkacz, and a 1-2 loss to Cobolli. Vacherot has sets in 4/7 and was swept by Lehecka, Harris and Vallejo. Main risk: Vacherot ranks 14 versus 17, just swept Baez and beat Fils and Tsitsipas; Paul lost 0-2 to Tabilo and only two of his comparable results are from September-October. Model 54% offers modest support, with no H2H.