Lehecka J. vs Jodar R.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Lehecka took a set in 6/7 comparable completed hard best-of-three matches, including wins over Vacherot, Humbert, Bergs and Borges this month. Jodar has sets in 6/8 but was swept by Vallejo on October 1 and Nakashima in August. Main risk: Jodar ranks 13 versus 19, swept Lehecka in their August hard H2H and just beat Tirante; Lehecka lost 0-2 to Alcaraz. Model 54% favors Jodar, so this estimate is only for Lehecka taking one set, with best-of-five results excluded.