Medvedev D. vs Svrcina D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 84%. Medvedev won all eight comparable completed hard best-of-three matches, including 2-0 over Cerundolo, Rublev and Carreno-Busta and 2-1 over Struff most recently. He swept Svrcina in both 2025 hard H2Hs. Main risk: Svrcina has sets in 6/7 comparable matches and won his latest three, beating Etcheverry and Norrie in deciding sets; Medvedev also needed three sets against Struff and Wong. Rankings 5 versus 126 and model 86% support the set selection. Incomplete and best-of-five scores are excluded from sample counts.