Bernet H. vs Boogaard T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Bernet won nine of ten recent completed hard matches, including 2-0 over Glinka, Stricker and Neuchrist and 2-1 over Balshaw. Boogaard has sets in 5/9 and lost 0-2 to Barroso Campos, Renard, Petrov and Gannon. Main risk: Bernet was swept by Chidekh on October 3 and several wins were against weaker players; Boogaard just beat Trufelli and took a set from Henning. Rankings 371 versus 487 and model 69% favor Bernet, with no H2H. The estimate is for one set only.