Brady P. vs Donnet E.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Brady took a set in 9/10 recent completed hard matches, with a 2-0 win over Prihodko on October 11 and sets against Poljicak, Schoenhaus and Maxted. Donnet has sets in 8/9 but most wins came against players outside the top 1000 and he lost 0-2 to Jade. Main risk: Donnet just swept Omarkhanov and has seven wins in nine; Brady was swept by Broom. Rankings 715 versus 817 and model 54% are only modest support, with no H2H.