Gaston H. vs Jade D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Gaston took a set in 7/9 recent completed hard matches, with wins over Faria, Shimabukuro and De Jong and a 1-2 loss to Rublev. Jade has sets in 4/6, lost 0-2 to Glinka and most recently to Gobat, and his wins were against much lower-ranked opponents. Main risk: Gaston was swept by Draxl on October 5 and van Assche in August; Jade beat Peniston and has four wins in six. Rankings 89 versus 621 and model 70% to win support a set selection; no H2H is supplied.