Serban R. vs Cakarevic S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. Cakarevic took a set in 7/10 recent completed clay matches, including her last three: 2-1 over Tsygourova, 1-2 against Zaar and 2-0 over Bohrer Martins. Serban has sets in 4/6 and just earned her first win in that sample against Van Emst. Main risk: Serban ranks 383 versus 551 and swept Cakarevic in their old 2022 clay H2H; Cakarevic lost 0-2 to Lukas and Golovina. The low-quality model gives Cakarevic 57% to win; the old H2H is secondary.