Burgos CF vs Granada CF

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. The line landed in 4/6 Burgos CF and 6/6 Granada CF completed matches in the last 45 days; supplied home/away samples were 4/6 and 6/7. Granada latest three away league games were 3-2 at Real Sociedad B, 2-3 at Leganes and 0-3 at Eibar; they also won 3-1 at Cordoba. Burgos recently won 3-1 against Ceuta and drew 2-2 with Real Sociedad B at home. Model total expected goals 2.89 is secondary support. Main risk: Burgos latest home result was 1-0 against Eldense, they drew 0-0 at Oviedo, and the latest H2H was 0-1 after earlier 1-1 and 0-0 meetings. That contrary pairing evidence lowers the estimate materially. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.