HFX Wanderers vs Cavalry

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. The line landed in 5/6 HFX Wanderers and 5/7 Cavalry completed matches in the last 45 days; supplied home/away samples were 2/5 and 4/5. HFX drew 3-3 at Forge and beat Inter Toronto 4-1; Cavalry latest away scores were 1-3 at Inter Toronto and 2-3 at Atl. Ottawa. The three 2026 H2Hs finished 1-3, 1-1 and 2-0. Model total expected goals 3.14 is secondary support. Main risk: HFX latest home game was a 0-1 loss to Atl. Ottawa and three of five supplied home games had at most one goal; Cavalry also won 1-0 at Pacific FC. This conflicting venue evidence materially lowers the estimate. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.