Hapoel Holon vs Hapoel Jerusalem

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 68%. Jerusalem are 6/8 since September, including 75-64 away at Cedevita Olimpija and 87-80 away at JL Bourg; they are 3/5 in current away games. Holon are 2/5 and just lost 79-99 at home to Cholet; their two wins were by two and three points. Main risk: Holon won the latest two H2Hs, Jerusalem lost 71-88 at Maccabi and 95-104 at Rytas, and mixed competition samples add uncertainty. The model 68% is only supporting evidence.