Rytas vs Neptunas

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. Rytas are 6/8 in current games, all at home, including 82-73 over Sabah and 104-95 over Hapoel Jerusalem. Neptunas are 2/6 and lost both away games 84-93 at Chemnitz and 78-87 at Gargzdai. Rytas won the latest H2H 98-91 and the last home meeting 100-95. Main risk: Rytas lost two of their latest three home games, including 102-105 to Gargzdai, and their international opponents vary substantially in quality; model 72% is reduced.