Breogan vs Basquet Girona

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Breogan are 6/7 since September, including 101-95 at Manresa and 110-104 at home to Joventut; all three listed current home games were wins. Girona are 2/5 and lost their two away games 78-118 at Baskonia and 84-95 at Joventut. Breogan won the latest home H2H 95-76. Main risk: high scoring raises variance, Girona just beat Dinamo 87-75, and Girona won the preceding two H2Hs; model 84% is reduced.