Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. League leaders on six straight wins with a 16:1 goal record across their last five home league games, and they won the last three head-to-heads against Lillestrom by a combined 11-2; the model rates the home win at 84% and market odds of 1.27 agree. Main risk: Lillestrom sit 4th with 8 wins from 14, so their overall level is better than their two-goals-in-four away record suggests.