Tabilo A. vs Carreno-Busta P.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Carreno-Busta took sets in five of seven comparable hard matches. He won three of four since September 28, beating Mannarino, Zhou and Navone, with the only defeat to Medvedev (5). Tabilo lost three of seven without a set. Counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results within 75 days, not an exhaustive record; model output is secondary and no exact-market price is verified. Main risk: Tabilo ranks 30 versus 65, recently beat Paul (17) 2-0 and took a set from Shapovalov. Carreno-Busta lost setless to Rublev as well as Medvedev. The low-quality match model favors Tabilo; older hard H2Hs favor Carreno-Busta but receive little weight.