Darderi L. vs Tsitsipas S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Tsitsipas took sets in five of six supplied comparable hard matches, including all five since September 28. He beat Etcheverry (31), Hijikata (85), Nishioka and Coppejans, and took a set from Vacherot (14). Darderi lost four of six comparable matches without a set. Counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results within 75 days, not an exhaustive record; model output is secondary and no exact-market price is verified. Main risk: Darderi ranks 21 versus 43 and beat Ruud 2-0 before his latest loss to Jacquet. Both samples contain only six results; Tsitsipas lost setless to Kovacevic in August. The low-quality model slightly favors Darderi, and the two favorable H2Hs were on grass.