Cerundolo J. M. vs Alcaraz C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. Alcaraz won four comparable completed hard-court matches on October 1-6, including 2-0 over Lehecka and Arnaldi and 2-1 over Munar and Michelsen, all ranked 19-49. Cerundolo has sets in 6/8 but lost 0-2 to Auger-Aliassime and Davidovich Fokina. Main risk: Alcaraz's comparable sample is only four matches and two needed a deciding set; Cerundolo just beat Mejia 2-0. Rankings 3 versus 55 and model 85% support Alcaraz, but the 2021 H2H had a different format and is not used as direct set-frequency evidence.