Svrcina D. vs Etcheverry T. M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. Svrcina took a set in 6/7 recent comparable completed hard-court matches, including 2-1 wins over Norrie and Harris in October. Etcheverry is 0/5 with a set in only 1/5, losing 0-2 to Jacquet, Atmane, Borges and Nakashima. Main risk: Etcheverry won three US Open best-of-five matches against Kopriva, Fearnley and Navone before losing 0-3 to Michelsen. Those wins are meaningful contrary form, excluded only from the comparable-format frequency. Etcheverry ranks 31 versus 126 and beat Svrcina 2-0 in 2023; Svrcina lost 0-2 to Hijikata and his October 6 incomplete score is excluded. The low-quality model is 50/50, and much of Etcheverry's sample is from August.