Shrewsbury vs Exeter

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. The line landed in 8/9 Shrewsbury and 8/10 Exeter completed matches in the last 45 days; supplied home/away samples were 3/4 and 3/4. Shrewsbury lost 0-2 to Stockport and won 2-1 at Grimsby; Exeter beat Rotherham 1-0 and lost 1-0 at Bristol Rovers. Model total expected goals 2.18 is secondary support. Main risk: Both have recent 2-2 draws, Exeter most recently against Oxford; H2H is older and cup opponents add variance. No verified current price for this exact total; odds omitted.