Crailsheim Merlins vs Giessen

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 67%. Crailsheim is 3/4 in September/October, winning its latest three by 44 at PS Karlsruhe, 21 against Tubingen and 14 at ETB Miners. Giessen is 2/4, with its only supplied current away game a 61-73 defeat at Wolmirstedt. Those recent scores and home court support a cautious home-win estimate; the 70% model is secondary. Main risk: Giessen won three of the four May playoff H2Hs and just beat Bochum 94-78. Both current samples contain only four games and uneven opposition, so the earlier direct-matchup disadvantage remains material.