Abra Weavers vs Quezon City

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Abra won all three September/October games: 79-72 Hong Kong Eastern, 81-59 Batang Kankaloo and 94-67 Ilagan Isabela Cowboys. The broader July-October sample is 9/10, including 79-51 away to this opponent on August 27. Quezon City is 4/6 since September and has allowed 81, 71 and 88 points in its latest three wins. The 84% model is secondary. Main risk: Abra has only three supplied results since September and Quezon City has won its latest three; playoff variance and the mixed-age sample warrant a substantial reduction from the model.