Sun F. vs Kachmazov A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Kachmazov won all ten supplied completed hard matches since September 20, nine in straight sets, including a three-set win over Broom (268) and 2-0 against Zhu yesterday. Sun lost three of nine completed matches without a set; both older hard H2Hs were 2-0 to Kachmazov. Counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results within 75 days, not an exhaustive record; model output is secondary and no exact-market price is verified. Main risk: Most Kachmazov opponents were ranked 479 or worse or unranked. Sun ranks 303 versus 525 and recently beat Tomic and Galarneau, stronger opposition than most of this streak. Sun’s October 6 partial score is excluded; a newer completed October 8 win is available. The model is low quality with rank/form divergence.