Sasnovich A. vs Kalieva E.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Sasnovich took sets in eight of ten recent hard matches and won seven. Her latest wins over Fruhvirtova and Yao were 2-0; she also beat Gibson (37) and Kasatkina (87). Kalieva lost three of ten without a set. Counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results within 75 days, not an exhaustive record; model output is secondary and no exact-market price is verified. Main risk: Kalieva just beat Korpatsch (53) 2-1, has a slightly better rank (117 versus 121) and took sets in seven of ten. Sasnovich lost setless to Alexandrova and Andreeva; no H2H is supplied.