Gea A. vs Humbert U.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Gea took sets in five of six comparable hard matches, including all five since September 28. He beat Machac 2-0, Faria 2-1 and took a set from Hurkacz. Humbert lost two of six comparable matches without a set. Counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results within 75 days, not an exhaustive record; model output is secondary and no exact-market price is verified. Main risk: Humbert ranks 32 versus 56, recently beat Nakashima 2-0 and took a set from Lehecka. Both samples contain only six comparable results; Gea lost 0-2 to Basavareddy and one recent win was against rank 849. There is no H2H and model quality is low.