Giunta M. vs Moro Canas A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Giunta took a set in 8/10 recent clay matches, winning six, including fresh wins over Cadenasso (220) 2-0 and Basile (521) 2-1, plus a September 2-0 win over Gentzsch (164). Main risk: Moro Canas ranks 233 versus 390, won 7/9 recent clay matches and leads the medium-quality match model 61%-39%; he won their July hard-court H2H 2-1. Giunta lost 0-2 to Taberner and Seyboth Wild, so this estimate applies only to a set.