Panathinaikos vs Fenerbahce

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 68%. Panathinaikos won 8 of 9 September/October games, all at home, including 90-67 against Maccabi Tel Aviv and 102-79 against Lyon-Villeurbanne before beating Vikos 103-74. Fenerbahce is 1/3 away in its current ten-game sample, losing 83-98 at Bahcesehir Kol. and 90-92 at Olympiacos. The model estimates 71%, reduced for opponent quality. Main risk: Fenerbahce is 8/10 overall, beat Bayern 100-76 and won the latest H2H 85-83 here in February; Panathinaikos also lost at home to PAOK, and the samples mix preseason with competitive games.