Alvark vs Saga

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Alvark won 4 of 5 September/October games, most recently 138-131 and 96-71 away to Chiba. Saga has lost four straight: 87-100 and 61-89 against Hiroshima D., then 61-97 and 89-93 against NeoPhoenix. Alvark won both February home H2Hs, 96-83 and 78-71. The 75% model supports the lean but includes older results. Main risk: only five/six current games are available, including preseason; Alvark lost 74-85 to Ryukyu, Saga won both December home H2Hs, and its latest defeat was only four points.