Cairns Taipans vs Brisbane Bullets

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 68%. Cairns won 4 of 8 September/October results, including both home games (93-87 Tasmania, 85-82 Perth), a 107-95 win at Melbourne United and 129-98 at Brisbane on September 12. Brisbane is 2/6 in that window, 0/2 away, and has just lost 78-93 to Sydney and 99-109 to Tasmania. The last three H2Hs also favor Cairns; the 74% model is secondary because its ten-game sample includes older games. Main risk: Cairns lost its other four current games by double-digit margins; both samples include preseason results and the current home/away splits are only two games each.