Cerundolo J. M. vs Mejia N.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Cerundolo took sets in six of eight comparable hard best-of-three matches, with wins over Rinderknech and Zhou and deciding-set losses to Buse and Bu. His rank is 55 versus Mejia 119. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard results from 25 July through 8 October, not an exhaustive period record; model output is secondary. Main risk: Mejia just beat Zheng 2-0 and has wins over Fearnley and Landaluce. Cerundolo lost setless to Davidovich Fokina and Auger-Aliassime. Mejia has an incomplete October 5 entry, excluded from counts, although his October 6 completed result supplies newer evidence. No H 2 H is supplied.