Schoen P. vs Alcala Gurri M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. Alcala Gurri won all eight supplied current clay matches, six in straight sets, including wins over Blanch, Forejtek, Taberner and Sanchez Jover. His rank is 138 versus 368; the medium-quality model supports the direction. Comparable counts use supplied completed clay results from 25 July through 8 October, not an exhaustive period record; model output is secondary. Main risk: Schoen won five of six comparable matches and just beat Nedic 2-0. Most Alcala Gurri opponents were ranked below 280, so the unbeaten sample does not prove dominance against stronger opposition. No H 2 H is supplied.