Llamas Ruiz P. vs Nesterov P.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. Llamas Ruiz has taken a set in 5/7 recent completed hard-court matches, with wins over Nardi (251), Sachko (172), Bolt (170) and Comesana (125). Nesterov is 6/6 for a set with five wins, but his completed opponents were ranked 288-1581; this is a step up to rank 144. Main risk: Nesterov is in strong current form and the low-quality model favors him 57%; most of Llamas Ruiz's supporting results are from August and he lost setless to Harris and Shevchenko. No H2H is available. Comparable samples use completed best-of-three results on this surface within 75 days; model is secondary and no exact current price is verified.