Dudeney A. vs Aksu A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Dudeney has taken a set in 5/7 recent completed hard-court matches, including 2-1 wins over Ruzic (83) and Klimovicova (206). Aksu is 5/8 for a set, with 0-2 losses to Pridankina (196), Stefanini (125) and Smith (488). Main risk: Aksu just beat Arango (138) 2-0 and has the better rank, while several Dudeney wins are from July/August and she recently lost 0-2 to Swan. Older partial results are excluded; no H2H is available. Comparable samples use completed best-of-three results on this surface within 75 days; model is secondary and no exact current price is verified.