Coppejans K. vs Tsitsipas S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Tsitsipas has taken a set in all four recent comparable hard-court matches, with wins over Etcheverry (31), Hijikata (85) and Nishioka (218) plus 1-2 against Vacherot (14). Coppejans is 2/4 in the same window, with setless losses to Rodionov (140) and Damm (104). Main risk: these are small samples and Coppejans just beat Sweeny and Basavareddy 2-0; the low-quality model and 2016-17 H2H are weak guides. Comparable samples use completed best-of-three results on this surface within 75 days; model is secondary and no exact current price is verified.