Zhu E. vs Kachmazov A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Zhu has taken a set in all 9 recent completed hard-court matches, including deciding-set losses to Bolt (170), Searle (228) and Zheng (94), and a 2-0 win over Matsuda (481). Kachmazov has 10/10 wins, but nine of those opponents were ranked 595 or lower or unranked; Broom (268) took a set in the latest. Main risk: Kachmazov is unbeaten in that sample and the model favors him 60%; the only H2H is an old clay win for Zhu. An older partial result is excluded. Comparable samples use completed best-of-three results on this surface within 75 days; model is secondary and no exact current price is verified.