Kotov P. vs Griekspoor T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Griekspoor has taken a set in 5/7 comparable hard-court matches against opponents ranked 2-87, including wins over Zverev, Arnaldi and Sonego and a recent 1-2 loss to Rublev. Kotov has won 7/10 but his latest opponents were ranked 104-455. The 2024 hard-court H2H went 2-0 to Griekspoor, while Kotov won their 2023 best-of-three hard meeting. Main risk: most of Griekspoor's supporting wins are from August, he lost his last two matches, and Kotov just beat Vukic 2-0; model quality is low. Comparable samples use completed best-of-three results on this surface within 75 days; model is secondary and no exact current price is verified.