Werner C. vs Falkowska W.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Falkowska took sets in seven of eight comparable hard-court matches, including wins over Noha Akugue, Smith and her latest match against Turkmen. Werner lost three of nine comparable matches without a set. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 22 July to 5 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Werner just beat Yashina 2-1, has wins over Podrez and Micic, and is slightly higher ranked. Falkowska lost 0-2 to Iatcenko and much of her sample dates from August. No H2H is supplied and her latest opponent was substantially lower ranked.