Schoen P. vs Misolic F.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Misolic took sets in all six comparable completed clay matches, including wins over Squire, Lopez Morillo and Esculcas. His earlier incomplete September entry is excluded, with a completed 2-0 win supplied on 4 October. Comparable counts use supplied completed clay best-of-three results from 22 July to 5 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Schoen is higher ranked, won three of four comparable clay matches and just beat Barroso Campos 2-0. His latest ten all-surface results are wins, including nine on hard. Misolic won only three of six and lost in three sets to Cerny and Gima. Both samples are small, so the model's preference alone cannot justify a full-win selection.