Safiullin R. vs Galarneau A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. Safiullin took sets in seven of nine comparable hard-court best-of-three matches, including 2-0 over Cobolli, wins over Halys and Bu, and a three-set loss to Rublev. Galarneau lost his latest two matches 0-2 to Harris. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 22 July to 5 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Galarneau beat Safiullin 2-1 on grass in June, although Safiullin won their old 2022 hard H2H 2-0. Safiullin lost 0-2 to Medvedev and Hurkacz. Different surfaces and old H2Hs are secondary; no verified odds are supplied.