Pavlovic L. vs Simakin I.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Simakin won all ten comparable hard-court matches, including September wins over Pacheco Mendez, Hewitt, Ellis and Purcell. He took sets across both straight-set and deciding-set wins. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 22 July to 5 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Simakin's latest supplied match is from 20 September and much of his winning opposition was lower ranked. Pavlovic took sets in eight of ten comparable matches and beat Varillas and Santillan, although he just lost 0-2 to Harris. No H2H is supplied.