Rytas vs Gargzdai

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Rytas won 5 of 6 September games, including 104-95 against Hapoel Jerusalem and 104-87 against Esenler Erokspor, before an 86-89 loss to G League United. They won their last two home H2Hs with Gargzdai 98-77 and 99-73. Current scoring, opponent quality and venue support the estimate, below the model's 82%. Main risk: Gargzdai just beat Neptunas 87-78 and Siauliai 90-79, and beat Rytas in both January and May at Gargzdai; September competition contexts vary.